Friday, June 27, 2025

Part I

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We are Peering over a Demographic Cliff: This Year’s High School Graduating Class is the Biggest in American History, But It’s Downhill From Here

Well, my guess is that a good number of you were at one or more graduation ceremonies or services over the course of the last several weeks. There’s been a very interesting development along those lines. It used to be that there were, in the main, two graduation opportunities, graduation from high school and graduation from college.

So when someone talked about a commencement ceremony, that’s basically what it was, high school or college. And then, of course, there were graduate schools. And so there could be a graduation ceremony for a law school, a medical school, a theological seminary. You just go down the list. But pretty much, it was high school graduation, college or university graduation, and then graduate school graduation, mostly high school and college. That’s what commencement ceremonies were.

But it’s interesting to see how there has been a further development of this understanding. So now, you have graduation from kindergarten. You have graduation from the first grade. You have graduation from elementary school. You have graduation from middle school. Pretty soon, you’re going to have graduation from every day’s class, I think, but that’s just the direction of the world.

And by the way, why did that happen? Well, part of it’s the culture of affirmation. That’s part of it. We love affirming, and we love being affirmed. And so that’s one of those opportunities. We love occasions, and what’s not cute about putting five and six-year-olds into graduation gowns and putting them in front of a line? There’s nothing un-cute about that.

The problem is that it really does blur the line between what’s a really significant academic achievement and what is not. Nonetheless, this is kind of a losing argument. And so I think you’re probably going to see more and more opportunities for graduation. By the way, there’s money in it. That’s the other thing many people miss. There is money in it, the economy. Well, it can benefit by having all these different graduations and all the rest. And well, that’s just pretty much the story.

But here’s an interesting part of the story, extremely relevant today, and that is that the graduating class from high school this year, that is to say spring of 2025, it is the largest cumulative total graduating class of high school students in American history. Interesting fact number one. Interesting fact number two, it is almost assuredly going to be the high watermark because from here, those numbers go down. 

Okay. This is the so-called demographic cliff that educators have been worried about for a long time. And that’s especially true if you’re running a college or university, and that just means that the pool of high school seniors is growing smaller. So admissions workers, you’re going to have to work a lot harder just to stay with the same numbers.

The demographic cliff is a grave warning to higher education. Honestly, there are going to be a lot of institutions that are going to fail. Arguably, there are too many academic institutions, colleges, and universities for the market, so to speak, in America today. There are all kinds of reasons why that may be so, but you’re also looking at the fact that a good number of institutions in higher education are pretty fragile. Economically, they’re pretty fragile. There’ve been a couple of movements to try to expand their market or their base. Yet the development of professional schools and professional programs, radical expansion of collegiate sports, that’s been a driver of enrollment in some schools.

But the fact is, all of these developments also have a terminus. They have a decreasing return and eventually, for instance, with those athletic programs, what had been an income maker is a revenue breaker. They start costing more than they bring in. But the big point I want to make today is just the math. Spring 2025, largest high school graduating class in American history. From this point onward, it’s downward.

Now the analysis of this is actually very easy. It’s the fall in the birth rate. And when you’re talking about a fall in the birth rate, you’re talking about the number of babies born, well, say 18 years ago. That’s going to produce the high school graduating class. 17, 18 years ago, you look at the birth rate, you look at those numbers, that’s going to tell you how many high school seniors they’re going to be, or at least it tells you this. There can’t be any more high school seniors than that, not in terms of the native-born population.

And so academic institutions, they’ve been bracing for this. I can just tell you they’ve been bracing for this. There were warnings that it would come last year. But for various reasons and without going into detail, COVID was one of them. It actually was about a year delayed. But from now on, the numbers are going down, and I appreciate the candor of the Washington Examiner in explaining this saying, “The millennials forgot to reproduce.”

You ask how this happened. They say, “A rush of dropouts is not behind the upcoming graduation recession. It’s a dearth of births. The millennials forgot to reproduce. Now, I’m just going to argue that that’s a clever line. I like it. That’s why I just shared it with you. I like the line, but it’s not the truth. The millennials didn’t forget to reproduce. They decided not to reproduce. And overwhelmingly, we see a falling fertility rate, a falling birth rate. Those are closely allied. They’re not exactly the same thing. Put that in a footnote. We don’t need to discuss it further.

The number of teenagers of high school students is going to go down, and it’s going to go down consistently, and it’s going to go down continuously. It’s going to go down significantly. Why? Because we can already see the numbers, because the birth numbers, they tell us the story. You can backdate the birth numbers and figure this out.

Furthermore, current birth numbers aren’t encouraging. There’s no recovery we’re seeing here. The American birth rate is greater than that of some other nations. Most particularly, you could look at a nation like South Korea. It is absolutely disastrous as you look at some nations. And it’s not just South Korea. It’s Japan. It’s not only that. It’s European nations such as Spain. You could look at the birth rate so much beneath the replacement rate that it’s not just a question who’s going to go to college. It’s a question of, “Well, who’s going to do anything?”

Timothy P. Carney in this article says, “Even though our baby bust has been going on for almost two decades, most Americans are only just now finding out. Many still think overpopulation is the threat. However, American academia is well aware of the problem. It’s been planning for the enrollment cliff for years now.” He says this, “It’s not quite a cliff. The dropoff in burst in 2007 until today has been steady. However, it is a one-way unending decline. Colleges will have to compete for fewer high school graduates, meaning that some colleges will no longer be able to operate in four years.”

Well, little footnote here, yes, the enrollment cliff is not just about birth rate. That is by far the most fundamental issue. It’s also about another problem of great interest to Christians. And that is how many boys and young men, in particular, are not ready for college and are not going to college. And frankly, they’re not showing up in some other important places such as the military or in the trades either.

So we have a huge problem there. But for today, the big issue is the birth rate. It’s by far the biggest contributor to this demographic problem. But here’s where I want to come back and say, let’s just remember as Christians that this is not merely a demographic issue. This isn’t just a numbers game. It’s not just an alarm sent off in higher education. It is a worldview crisis. It’s a theological crisis. Something has happened.

Let’s remember that the command to reproduce is in the first chapter of the first book of the Bible. It is the first most essential command given to human beings, and we also have to note that most societies throughout human history have considered replacing, if not expanding, the population to be a basic national responsibility and goal.

Now, Carney made reference as we’ve often discussed, to the population explosion myth and the population control movement that has contributed to this, but I think it’s actually part of a far larger complex, and I talk about this, I return to it because I don’t think there’s a more important issue of worldview significance before us. If you decide not to get married and you decide not to have babies and you decide not to have a family, you know what? You’re making a decision. It’s not just a personal decision. It’s not just a lifestyle decision. It is a massive decision of social consequence. It is a massive decision disclosing your worldview, your commitments, what you believe to be the purpose for human existence, what your purpose in life is.

The fact is that the scariest aspect of this, is that an increasing number of young Americans doesn’t consider marriage or being a mother or father a part of the necessary, say, definition of adulthood at all. They are increasingly open about saying they don’t see it as a part of their own conception of the good life. And this is leading not only to a demographic cliff for colleges. It’s leading to, I’ll just say, a general breakdown of society. I think Christians have to see it that way. A rebellion against creation order, this basic is going to come with severe consequences. And in coming days, we’ll be looking more closely at some of those consequences.

Right now, it is just interesting, and I think timely that we think of all those young people who crossed platforms for graduation, especially high school seniors in 2025, and recognize we probably just witnessed what will be for the foreseeable future of our nation, the largest graduating class, period, all downhill from here.

Part II

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Is God Good to Permit That My Wife Die from a Brain Tumor at a Young Age? — Dr. Mohler Responds to Letter from Listeners of The Briefing

I want to turn now to questions, and I appreciate questions, all of them, but I especially appreciate questions that come with a particular kind of candor. And clearly, this one’s coming from a man who listens to the briefing and he says he’s been a Christian since he was a younger man, 1979.

He says that his first wife died of cancer from a tumor in 1978, and he says he’s continually frustrated by the question that if God is just, why would he take his wife from me at such a young age? He says that he has a son by that wife and now grandchildren through him. He says, “But it just doesn’t seem to be good that God allowed her to die from a brain tumor. I would appreciate your perspective on what goodness there is in God letting her die from a brain tumor. How is God good in his decision to bring cancer?” 

Okay. Really significant candid questions asked there. And I want to just note theologically for care that there are two different questions. And one is that the Bible never says cancer is a good thing. The Bible never says that death is a good thing. The Bible never says that suffering is a good thing. The Bible tells us that God is good and, in these things, is working for good, for those who believe in the Lord Jesus Christ. And we are also told that God is absolutely sovereign and he is absolutely good. And so for Christians, we understand that he’s working for good, for greater good and his greater glory in this context.

Now, what we do not have to say, and as a matter of fact what theologically shouldn’t be said is that the suffering is good, this cancer is good, the death is good. The Bible doesn’t say that. As a matter of fact, the Bible declares that death is our enemy, an enemy that is conquered by Christ and, one day, will be vanquished by Christ, and the glory of God thus is going to be shown in Christ’s victory over death, Christ’s victory over sin, Christ’s victory over suffering.

And there are, I think, some very bad arguments some Christians give as to answering the question, “Why did God allow this to happen? Why did a sovereign God allow this to happen?” And we believe that in the operation of his sovereignty, he established all things that will pass before the foundation of the cosmos. 

And so there are some bad unbiblical things that some Christians will say such as that God was unable to act in this circumstance. Now, God is omnipotent. he is able to act. Others will say flippantly that you look at something like this, and we can trace exactly the reason why God does something, and such things will become apparent to us even as the issues come into focus. That’s not always the case. I think many of us will die with some of these questions unanswered. I do not believe they will be eternally unanswered. I’m looking forward to that day when every eye is dry and every tear is wiped away. But between here and there, we need to understand that suffering is real, death is real, sin is real, tumors are real. And the urgency of thinking clearly as Christians is real too. 

And I want to say to this man, I believe that God is absolutely sovereign. I believe that he ordains all that comes to pass. The confessional language is he ordains or permits all that comes to pass. I believe that God is absolutely good, and I believe that, in all things, his glory will be one day evident to us.

And so I will simply say, number one, that no Christian should say that you were not rightly suffering and grieving. No Christian should say that this tumor is not in itself evil. No one as a Christian should say that death or suffering is illusory. They are all too real. The Bible dignifies the reality of these horrible things, but also points us to the cross of Christ, to the empty tomb and to the final consummation of all things to God’s greater glory.

I do take great promise in the reality that every eye will be dry and every tear will be wiped away. And I also lean into the absolute confidence I have from Scripture that on that day, God’s glory will be seen, as it is, in such a way that all that we have ever known in our lifetimes will come into clearer view. And I think every eye dry and every tear wiped away means also that we will have a much fuller understanding of these things on that day.

Until then, I think we need to be honest, we need to be biblical. We need to be very careful in not violating the doctrine of God either in terms of his power and omnipotence or his goodness and his mercy and righteousness. And I think it also means we dignify this kind of question. It’s an honest question. I want to say to this listener, you’re not wrong to ask this question. I would be wrong to presume that I can answer it on behalf of God. I’m obligated gladly to say what I believe Scripture teaches. And I believe that the most fundamental truths taught by scripture begin with the fact that God is love and that one day those who are in Christ will know that all things are well.

Part III

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Do You Agree with Charles Spurgeon on ‘Political Christians’? — Dr. Mohler Responds to a Letter from a 15-Year-Old Listener of The Briefing

And now, a 15-year-old young man writes in to ask a question about Charles Spurgeon. How happy is that? He writes, “I was reading a sermon by Charles Spurgeon once and I came across this quote, ‘I cannot say that I delight in political Christians. I fear that party strife is a serious trial to believers, and I cannot reconcile our heavenly citizenship with the schemes of the hustings and the riot of the polling booth.’”

He goes on to say, “This was from a sermon of Philippians 3:20 and was titled Citizenship in Heaven.” This young man asked, “I was wondering what you thought about this quote and whether or not you agreed with it.” Okay, so let me say number one, I’m not going to disagree with Charles Spurgeon, and I’m not going to say that because Charles Spurgeon is inerrant and infallible, God’s word is. But I am going to say I think that he’s often right in pastoral wisdom, and I like the way he expresses this. He says, “I cannot say that I delight in political Christians.”

Now, let me just say what I don’t think he meant there. I don’t think he meant there that Christians shouldn’t be active in politics, that Christians shouldn’t vote in elections. I don’t think he was saying that we don’t have a responsibility to the political process. I don’t think he was saying we should withdraw in kind of a retreat from the world around us and that responsibility. I don’t think he says those who have the right to vote shouldn’t vote. I don’t even think he’s saying that those who are Christians shouldn’t enter into political office. And I think there’s good evidence in Charles Spurgeon’s life that he didn’t believe any of those things categorically.

But I do think he offers here a very sober-minded cogent warning against those who might be described as political Christians, those who might be deluded into thinking the political process in this age can bring about what only the kingdom of Christ can bring about. I think he is warning here against too much confidence in politics and those who give themselves to politics. And so I will say, I think giving ourselves to any earthly endeavor in that sense, I like the way Spurgeon puts it with the schemes of the hustings and the riot of the polling booth. That’s a messy business. Christians would have to get into it carefully and I think with some reservations. I’m thankful there are Christians who have given themselves to it carefully and responsibly and with reservations. I would fear those who give themselves to politics without reservation. And so I want to thank this listener for the question, and I hope I have answered it well in a way that would make Mr. Spurgeon happy.

Part IV

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What Advice Would You Give to An Aspiring Academic? — Dr. Mohler Responds to a Letter from an 18-Year-Old Listener of The Briefing

Okay. Here, another young man who writes in saying, “Please don’t laugh, but I feel called to serve the Lord in academia.” He says, “What advice would you give to an aspiring Christian Baptist academic? Also, I’m starting at Boyce College in the fall.” Okay. Well, that last sentence took away my first word of advice. I am thrilled this young man will be a student in the entering class at Boyce College in the fall. And I want you to hear me say, I think it’s great that this question followed on the other question, both from young men and their teens asking, “Well, what about this area of life in terms of my adult responsibility? What does that look like?”

And I want to say to this man, I’m not going to laugh. He says, “Please don’t laugh, but I feel called to serve the Lord in academia.” How can I laugh at that? That’s what I do. I’m not going to laugh at what I do. I may laugh at myself at times, but I’m not going to laugh at the importance of what I do. Not only that, I’m looking for faculty all the time. I’m looking for the most faithful godly faculty for this school. I need Christian academics. I think, however, this young man may have another angle on this. Maybe he’s talking about the larger world of academia out there in the secular world, and there I’ll say, look, the reason I think he said, “Please don’t laugh,” is because he knows I have a pretty good idea of what that world looks like. And I’m not going to laugh.

I think it’s a very important that Christians be wherever Christians can be in integrity and full credibility, and I would love to see more Christians in higher education and academia rather than fewer. I would like the right kinds of Christians with the right kind of convictions to be in the right kind of teaching posts to have maximum influence. Just in the course of this week, I spoke to an Ivy League professor who I think is bravely and courageously teaching in one of the nation’s most prestigious universities. I’m very thankful he is there. Let me just say that. I’m incredibly thankful he is there.

I think there are conditions in which he couldn’t be there. But so long as he can be there in integrity and in fullness of conviction, I hope he’s there. I will tell you, I think secular higher education is learning all the right defense mechanisms to keep convictional Christians out of many, if not most, teaching positions. But you know what? They’re going to make mistakes every once in a while. And we can also hope that a part of the pushback against the higher education establishment right now, and I want to credit the Trump administration for bringing a lot of that pressure, I think some of that is going to lead to a pattern in which you’re going to have a lot of leaders in higher education who are going to say, “At least we need to hire some of those conservatives. We need to hire some of those Christians.”

I’m going to tell you that’s not enough, but I’ll tell you it is progress given where we are right now.

Part V

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Can a Christian Participate in a Peaceable Protest? Was It Wrong for Me to Attend a Political Protest? — Dr. Mohler Responds to Letter from Listeners of The Briefing

Okay. Really interesting question. This one surprised me. Listener to The Briefing, who is a physician wrote in, and he says, “Over the past weekend, I peacefully protested at the No Kings Rally in San Antonio.” He says, “I’m particularly concerned about this administration’s attempt to consolidate power within the executive branch. And as a physician, I’m concerned particularly about the DOGE cuts to global health spending to programs like PEPFAR and UNICEF. A fellow believer said to attend such a protest was unwise and sinful because Scripture tells us to honor the emperor.”

He says, “While admittedly the protest, there were certain signs and a chants that we as Christians should not affirm,” I think a chants, that means C-H-A-N-T-S, “that were repeated that Christians should not affirm or repeat.” He says, “I don’t believe peacefully demonstrating against policies, I think, hurt the least among us is wrong. How are we as thinking Christians to view peaceful protest?”

Well, first of all, let me just say that answering the straightforward, simple question at the end of your email, that’s easy. Can a Christian participate in peaceful protest? The answer is yes. And that’s very much a part of the American experience. It covers rights that are explicitly granted in the Bill of Rights. And so, yes, the answer is Christians can participate in peaceful, lawful protest. Now, that’s different than the question of prudence. I didn’t say it’s necessarily wise for Christians to participate in such things. And I’ll be honest, I’d have enormous reservations about showing up at a “No Kings” protest because of what is being protested by many people at that kind of event.

That is to say, I don’t think that would represent my position at all. I understand your intentions for protest were limited, at least from what I read here. When you say to consolidate power within the executive branch, I think the president is clearly testing those limitations. I don’t think protests will have any impact on that. I guarantee you that I believe Donald Trump probably enjoyed the protests as much as he enjoyed the ones for him. That’s just, I think, the way he sees that kind of event.

But you say as a physician, you’re concerned about the DOGE cuts to global health, PEPFAR and UNICEF. I think that’s an issue in which Christians can have a debate. And I think that the hardest one there is PEPFAR precisely because of the AIDS crisis. I’m going to say that I want to validate the fact that you as a Christian physician have a right to have positions on these issues to articulate those positions. And honestly, it would be a privilege someday if you could talk to me about those issues. I would enjoy that. 

But I just want to say that I think Christian prudence and just understanding other things that are going on at this kind of No Kings event, I would have no thing to do with it, just to be honest. And that’s what I would advise. I think it would confuse people and, evidently, may have confused some of your own fellow believers there. So you asked the question about peaceful protest. I think, done peacefully and respectfully, protest is a constitutional right, and it’s not wrong.

I don’t think, however, that something like the “No Kings” protest comes without, let me just say, rather significant complications. I am very involved in so many of these issues, and I’ll say unashamedly involved in trying to persuade people, educate and equip people, and also to take public positions on these issues. I’ll just be honest, I don’t do protests, and that’s not to say I never would.

I have, in certain circumstances, particularly in the pro-life movement, participated in events to make very clear pro-life conviction. But, in general, so many of these events, I’ll just say I find it not serving my understanding of Christian stewardship on these issues. So you asked the question. That’s my best answer. I wasn’t expecting this one. So I want to especially thank you for an unexpected question.

Part VI

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How Should Christians Approach Complicated Figures Like Martin Luther? — Dr. Mohler Responds to Letter from Listeners of The Briefing

Okay. So the next question is a pattern question, which means several people have written similar questions. So I’m going to put them together. And evidently, some of it may have been sparked because maybe I made a recent reference to Martin Luther, the great reformer, or having been in so many of the main locations where the Reformation was hammered out just in recent weeks in Germany and Switzerland.

And by the way, both an older listener and a younger listener wrote in this case. One of them wrote, “to express my bewilderment in why every preacher, speaker, and podcaster chooses to ignore/overlook the tension between the good Martin Luther did and the fact that he wrote a book on anti-Semitism.”

I think there’s some question about some of what follows here. A younger Christian wrote in to say, “Knowing of heroes in church history who are flawed, what do you do with their mistakes?” And even younger listener, a very similar question. Let me just come back and say, number one, I do my very best in discussing someone like Martin Luther in making clear as much as I can in the appropriate context, the totality of Martin Luther’s life and work, standing there in Wittenberg, standing at the town church where he preached.

There’s a plaque on the wall known as Judensau. It’s a blatantly anti-Semitic piece on the side of the church. And it’s horrifying when you look at it. And you ask the question, “Why is it there?” And by the way, it was there well over a hundred years before Martin Luther was born, but he preached in that building. And Martin Luther was very much against Judaism.

Now, let me just say he wasn’t seen in historical context so much against Jews as he was Judaism. So he actually had a Christian who was Jewish there in the university. But when it came to Judaism, he saw it as something to be greatly resisted. And the term anti-Semitism is not wrongly applied to him. I want to say there’s plenty of evidence there for what would be morally indicted as anti-Semitism.

And so I just say, you don’t talk about Martin Luther, that’s not to say in every conversation because the reason Martin Luther is remembered is because of his theological contribution, seminal, singular at times, contribution to the Reformation, to the cause of the gospel.

But I think it’s really important that we recognize God has not given us, in church history, any perfect models. None. And so one of the listeners writes in acknowledging David and Bathsheba, yes. And here’s the thing about the Scripture. The Scripture tells us both of those things. In other words, it tells us about the greatness of David’s reign. And yet it tells us about the horrifying nature of his sin with Bathsheba. And by the way, it doesn’t just mention that one time it will come back to it, but not every reference to King David in Scripture has anything to do with his sin. A lot of it has to do with the Messianic promise concerning his throne. A lot of it has to do with his courage and his role in Israel.

And so I don’t know how to find an absolutely right proportion here, but I want to say to all these listeners, you’re not asking a stupid question. You’re not asking a wrong question. And, yes, when we talk about Christian leaders, we need to be honest, and we need to address these issues honestly.

But I don’t think cancellation culture is right in any sense here. You don’t have the Protestant Reformation without Martin Luther. You don’t have Martin Luther without everything good about him and everything bad about him. By the way, I disagree with Martin Luther on many things, including infant baptism.

But I honor Martin Luther and do so without apology. I honor others. And for instance, George Whitefield, he was not without sin, particularly when it came to slavery and other issues. I think the biblical exhortation is that we take these men, and I want to say men and women, in their full measure as best we can.

But you know what? The Bible presents heroes. Just look at the book of Hebrews, for example. The Bible presents heroes. It doesn’t present them without reference to their sin, but it still points to them as examples and heroes. Well, let’s just get Peter. Peter is an example for us, the Apostle Peter, an example in teaching, an example in his life, an example in his courage, except when he wasn’t such as when he denied Christ.

And so we have, in the Word of God, the truth about these figures, and we still honor them as Scripture does, but hopefully in the right proportion. I think one final short word about this is that the Bible presents only one hero, and that hero is the one true and living God. And on Earth in the Incarnation, that hero was Jesus Christ. And all others are presented warts and all. Jesus is presented as sinless and perfect. That distinction is important both ways.

You can send your question just by writing me at mail@albertmohler.com.